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Apesar de toda retórica em relação ao uso de armas nucleares, recente relatório mostra que EUA e Rússia investirão bilhões de dólares nos próximos anos nessa área. É o que diz recente relatório da British American Security Information Council. As linhas afirmam que a superpotência gastará em torno de 700 bilhões de dólares na próxima década. E a ex-república soviética, 70 bilhões.

O programa nuclear iraniano, criticado pela mesma retórica, visto em parte pela preocupação do preconceito, e da diferenciação (ideológica, civilizatória, altera), em parte pela preocupação oriunda das próprias declarações dos líderes xiitas, não foi analisado. É certo dizer, no entanto, que ele não tem o punjante e preocupante orçamento estadunidense, em nenhuma estimativa razoável.

Como medir intenções? As análises partem de dados materiais, subjetivos, de ideários bem construídos, dos medos apenas? Não caminhamos para um mundo cada vez mais ofensivo?

Seguem alguns pontos do relatório:

• The US is planning to spend $700bn on nuclear weapons over the next decade. A further $92bn will be spent on new nuclear warheads and the US also plans to build 12 nuclear ballistic missile submarines, air-launched nuclear cruise missiles and bombs.

• Russia plans to spend $70bn on improving its strategic nuclear triad (land, sea and air delivery systems) by 2020. It is introducing mobile ICBMs with multiple warheads, and a new generation of nuclear weapons submarines to carry cruise as well as ballistic missiles. There are reports that Russia is also planning a nuclear-capable short-range missile for 10 army brigades over the next decade.

• China is rapidly building up its medium and long-range “road mobile” missile arsenal equipped with multiple warheads. Up to five submarines are under construction capable of launching 36-60 sea-launched ballistic missiles, which could provide a continuous at-sea capability.

• France has just completed deployment of four new submarines equipped with longer-range missiles with a “more robust warhead”. It is also modernising its nuclear bomber fleet.

• Pakistan is extending the range of its Shaheen II missiles, developing nuclear cruise missiles, improving its nuclear weapons design as well as smaller, lighter, warheads. It is also building new plutonium production reactors.

• India is developing new versions of its Agni land-based missiles sufficient to target the whole of Pakistan and large parts of China, including Beijing. It has developed a nuclear ship-launched cruise missile and plans to build five submarines carrying ballistic nuclear missiles.

• Israel is extending its Jericho III missile’s range, and is developing an ICBM capability, expanding its nuclear-tipped cruise missile enabled submarine fleet.

North Korea unveiled a new Musudan missile in 2010 with a range of up to 2,500 miles and capable of reaching targets in Japan. It successfully tested the Taepodong-2 with a possible range of more than 6,000 miles sufficient to hit half the US mainland. However, the report, says, “it is unclear whether North Korea has yet developed the capability to manufacture nuclear warheads small enough to sit on top of these missiles”.

Iran’s nuclear aspirations are not covered by the report

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